International oil continued to rise as uncertainty over efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict also provided support due to falling U.S. crude oil inventories and strong oil demand. On Thursday (August 21), the settlement price of West Texas light crude oil for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Futures Exchange was $63.52 per barrel, up $0.81, or 1.29%, from the previous trading day, and the trading range was $62.52-63.67, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.67 per barrel, up $0.83, or 1.24%, from the previous trading day, and the trading range was $66.74-67.80.

According to U.S. energy information summer data, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 6 million barrels last week, although crude oil inventories in the Cushing region, where crude oil is delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange, have increased for six consecutive weeks and now reach 23.1 million barrels. However, inventory levels are still well below the five-year average of 35.1 million barrels. The U.S. will enter the peak season of refinery overhauls in the fall, and the spread between Brent and WTI has widened, from a low of $2.24 per barrel (for spot contracts) in late June to $4.15 per barrel at the settlement price on August 21.

Analysts at energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note: "Some geopolitical risk premiums are being slowly reinjected into the market, while lower-than-expected U.S. crude oil inventories add to the bullish sentiment." We believe that this round of rise in crude oil prices has intensified significantly due to the lack of new sell-offs, and most funds are currently heavily allocating short positions in crude oil futures. ”

Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a report on Thursday: "Signs of strong US demand boosted market sentiment, and crude oil prices rebounded." However, Hynes still reminded that some "bearish sentiment is still obvious, and traders continue to pay attention to the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations."

According to CCTV news reports, after the meeting between the leaders of the United States, Europe and Ukraine on the 18th, European leaders proposed to create a plan to provide collective security guarantees for Ukraine. In this regard, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on the 20th that it is a "dead end" to discuss Ukraine's security and security issues without Russia's participation.

Ritterbusch and Associates, an oil trading consulting firm, said some geopolitical risk premiums are slowly returning to the market.

Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said the uncertainty of peace talks means that the possibility of imposing tougher sanctions on Russia has resurfaced.

Hurricane Erin has become the first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, reaching Category 5 hurricane status on August 16 after an unusually rapid drop in atmospheric pressure. However, its trajectory swung north-east along the US East Coast this week, moving it away from critical oil and gas infrastructure. So far, the 2025 hurricane season has been relatively calm and the duration of the storm has been shortened. Hurricane activity in the country usually intensifies from mid-August, and current models point to another season that may be active. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to predict higher-than-average hurricane activity this year, but has adjusted its pre-season forecast for May. The agency now expects the United States to be hit by 5-9 hurricanes this hurricane season, 3-5 of which are major hurricanes (over Category 3).

Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered believe that the possibility of Russian energy commodities returning to Europe in the short term is very limited. In a report last week, Standard Chartered said fears that oil prices would plummet if Trump could reach a ceasefire agreement with Putin were exaggerated. First, Standard Chartered said that Russia has been producing unsustainably at maximum capacity, which has long-term consequences for its resources. The country will produce an average of 9.01 million barrels of oil per day in the first half of 2025, about 610,000 barrels lower than the average daily production in 2021. The lifting of export sanctions will mean the return of Western service companies, as well as Russia's access to high-quality alternatives; However, Russia does not have much idle production capacity to supply the oil market. Second, lifting the price cap on Russian oil will dampen the interest of major buyers such as India in buying Russian crude oil. Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India's crude oil imports from Russia have surged, jumping from $2.31 billion four years ago to $52.2 billion in 2024. In addition, it is unlikely that Europe will again submit to Putin by buying large amounts of Russian oil and gas.

Investors are also watching the Federal Reserve's central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, for signals that the Fed may cut interest rates next month. The annual gathering of central bank officials begins on Thursday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on Friday. Previously, the US employment report for July was unexpectedly weak, and traders increased their bets that the Fed would cut interest rates at its September 16-17 meeting, but due to the implementation of new trade tariffs in the United States, the upward wind in inflation is still an uncertain factor, making some policymakers cautious about easing policy.

Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose to its highest level since June, and the number of continuing jobless claims is also rising, further indicating that the US labor market is slowing. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 235,000 in the week ending August 16, an increase of 11,000, higher than the market expectation of 22.5. The number of continuing jobless claims in the United States rose to 1.97 million in the week ending August 9, the highest level since November 2021. Trump's protectionist trade policies have hit businesses. The average U.S. import tariff has risen to its highest level in a century. The U.S. government reported in early August that jobs had increased by an average of 35,000 per month over the past three months. Domestic demand in the United States grew at the slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022 in the second quarter.

The continued rise in initial jobless claims in the United States may exacerbate concerns about the labor market, as the recent US jobs report showed a sluggish hiring and an increase in unemployment. The rise in jobless claims shows that it is becoming increasingly difficult for unemployed Americans to find new jobs. This trend is consistent with the rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August.

According to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool, before Powell's speech, federal funds rate futures traders lowered their expectations for a rate cut in September, and the market now expects a 74% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 82% on Wednesday. At the same time, the market expects a cumulative rate cut of 49 basis points by the end of the year, down from the previous 54 basis points.

免责声明：内容来源于互联网公开信息，转载的目的在于传递分享及交流，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其真实性，也不构成其他建议。仅供分享交流，不为其版权负责，版权归属原作者、原出处。如涉版权，请联系我们及时修改或删除。